Consequences of a Ukrainian No-Fly Zone

Some says this would lead to World War III, while others say Russia would never escalate to nuclear weapons due to a no-fly zone. Who is right?

Many said Russia would never attack Ukraine and it was all just posturing. Personally, I believe Putin kept the prospect of an attack on the table but that his real hope was that amassing his troops on the border would pressure NATO and Ukraine to give into his demands. Too many people did not take his threats seriously and so we got an actual military invasion that many had said would not happen.

Putin has likewise been very clear that a NATO intervention would have dire consequences. To think otherwise would be to be as naive as those who thought Russia would never invade Ukraine if their demands were not met.

But does that mean an immediate launch of nuclear missiles on NATO countries? Probably not. But that does not mean it could not ultimately end like this. Those who call for no-fly zones simply state that “oh, he would never launch nukes,” and don’t bother to do any further analysis of other possible responses.

Now, I am no military analyst, so all I can do is look at history. I believe a reason that many people think a no-fly zone is possible is because NATO has frequently done this in the past with few to no consequences. However, what people forget is that this has involved developing countries with very limited military…