I think Putin is perfectly rational within the alternative reality he lives in. But we kind of know what that reality looks like so we have a sense of what kinds of moves might make.

As long as Putins actions are predictable, you cannot claim that he is irrational. Before this invasion happened, I predicted that this invasion would happen if we didn't give in to any Russian demands.

I made that prediction based on what we understand about the world Putin lives in. If we are to claim Putin is irrational, we need proof of that. There is no proof of that. Quite the contrary everything points to him being a rational agent.

There is every reason to believe Putin has no aim to attack the rest of the West. Of course it is easy to come with a "I told you so," if we provoke such an action from Russia.

Already there are these claims that invasion of Ukraine was inevitable. No, it wasn't. The invasion was entirely predictable given that Putin has for decades complained about NATO expansion and has never been given any conscesions.

To clarify: It is of course the full right of Ukraine to chose NATO membership as a soverign nation.

But I am talking here from the perspective of Putin and Russia. From the alternative reality he lives in.

I don't think anything suggest Russia is provoked by weakness. Quite the contrary. Russia has been pissed off by not being shown the respect they think they are owed.

Ukraine has shown strength against Russia, and that has not garnered any respect from Russia. Quite the contrary it has riled them up and made them engage in more war crimes whan ever. Initially Russia was not too brutal in Russia. Has Ukraine gave them a heavy beat down they have gotten real ugly and comitted one war crime after the other.

Citizens subject to these war crimes have remarked on this. They said they got treated much worse after Russians started taking heavy casualties.

I think it would be a profound mistake to think that Russia will somehow respect us more if we beat the shit out of them. That is what the Nazis did and it simply rallied more intense push back. The Red Army was absolutely brutal against the Germans in retaliation.

You can actually make deals with them. Finland made peace with the Soviets and they actually honored that peacedeal afterwards.

They understand cost/benefit analysis. With the heavy beating they have taken in Ukraine there is some opportunity to make a deal. They have already gone back on several earlier demands.