Maybe, but you also have to include the profound effect of Republican voter suppression. You cannot simply count the people who want to vote. You got to count those able to vote. When minorities face 10 hour waiting lines to vote then that will deter a lot of them. Next is the problem that their vote may not get counted. Was it not in George where 1.5 million votes primarily from minorities simply got discarded? Republicans will just invent any number of arbitrary criteria to toss a vote in the garbage as long as they can make sure they can apply that rule disproportionately to voters from areas dominated by minorities.
Republicans are rigging the election with any means they can get away with all while screaming about voter fraud. Accuse your opponent loudly of what you are guilty of. That is the good old advice they took from minister of propaganda: Joseph Goebbels.