Of course NATO plays a role. One transcript doesn't change that. I have observed Putin and the Kremlin complain about NATO expansion over many decades. One remark taken out of context does not change that.
I don't buy this idea that Putin has lined up a lot of bad things he wants to do and then he tests them one by one to see what he gets away with. That is too cartoonish.
Politics evolve much more through action-reaction. Putin didn't suddenly invade Crimea out of the blue. It happened in response to Euromaiden and we he percieved as a Western coup in Ukraine. Keep in mind I am arguing for the rational of Putin seen from the alternative reality he lives in, not based on the real world.
In in the Putin/Kremlin reality Ukraine was taken over by the West in 2014, when a democratically elected leader who was friendly to Putin got toppled by the West.
Crimea has alwasy been very strategically important to Russia and got given away to Ukraine mostly by mistake. Something Russians have long been bitter about. Seeing Crime now come under Western sphere of inflience was the last straw for the Kremline'ites.
I am reminding you again: I am talking from their alternative reality point of view, not the real world here.
Donbas was a response to protest arising in the Russian speaking part of Ukraine. A response to laws giving more rights to Russian speakers being repelled.
Russian actions have been responses to exernal events. It is not like they have some "list of evil things we want to do," which they work their way down checking boxes.
We didn't get to the problems we have today because of appeasment. Quite the contrary we are here because we never gave Russia anything. From the Russian perspective they have been doing nothing but NATO appeasment. They have tolerated one NATO expansion after the other.
To Putin we are the bully. Putin is acting the way you want us to act. He is going: "Enough is enough. We cannot let NATO push us around like this! We got to act now."
This is why I am so strongly opposed to the whole "stand your ground" philosophy. That is what honor culture is about that ruled much of the world in the past. Nobody would tolerate the smallest slight because everybody operated on the premise that by not striking back quickly and violently people will take advantage of you.
That is the philosophy that ruled in my native Norway for hundreds of years during the Viking age. It led to nothing but extreme violence. As much as dislike Christianty, Jesus has an important point about forgivness and turning the other cheek.
The world should not operate on Viking ethos. We could have compromised with Russia earlier but kept pushing. Instaed of turning the other cheek, Putin eventually did what you advcate: He reacted.
Self-rightousness is a dangerous thing. Every man thinks he is morally right in his own universe. The school yard bully analogy is popular but in reality it is more like two people on a bar who get into a heated argument. Sometimes it is better to just walk away even if the other guy was a douchebag.
