Ultimately I don't think it really matters. Years ago when I predicted Apple would switch to ARM, I didn't even assume they would reach Intel performance: https://erik-engheim.medium.com/in-3-years-apple-will-switch-from-intel-to-arm-a6816058a1b2

My conclusion back then was that ARM simply doesn't need to have Intel performance. Lower cost, longer battery life and standarization across Mac and iOS devices makes it worth it. I believe that is equally true today.

Apple doesn't actually need to be ahead of Intel, but being ahead at the moment allows them to establish a beach head and invade x86 territory while they have a very clear upper hand.

By the time the ARM transition is firmy established Apple really only need to match Intel performance in terms of performance per watt and cost per performance. Reusing hardware across the line will more than make up for being slightly behind.

And long term there is no reason to believe Intel can stay ahead. They don't have any magic they can pull out of the hat that Apple cannot do as well. They cannot beat them on volume now that we got indepdent fabs.

There is nothing in the ARM ISA which gives them a disadvantge in designing an efficient micro-architecture relative to x86.