Worse than Japan?!
I know you said that Chinese housing market cannot collapse due to the Chinese government, but you look at places like Sri Lanka or the old Soviet Union for that matter. It seems like when you ignore economic reality for too long eventually you build up forces so strong that they will eventually overwhelm you.
But I agree that China can probably put off their problems for quite some years and instead experience a sort of stagnation. I am just not convinved you can stagnate forever without there being a bit more of a dramatic situation.