You Misunderstand the Threat of Nuclear War With Russia

Many are convinced that Putin is just sable rattling and trying to intimidate us. They think nuclear war is no real danger. We can safely send in NATO forces in Ukraine without nuclear war ever happening.

I keep reading people arguing that Putin is just engaging in Nuclear blackmail and that it is just a bluff that a strong leader will call. That is in my opinion a profound misunderstanding of the danger sending in NATO into Ukraine presents.

It assumes that the relation between NATO involvement and nuclear war works in a cartoonish manner: That as soon as NATO moves in Putin chooses to either push the red nuclear button or he doesn’t.

Of course Putin will not push the nuclear button as soon as NATO moves into Ukraine. Ah, so we are safe? We can just move in NATO forces?

No, because if history as taught us anything it is that war tends to escalate far beyond what we first imagined. One domino falls and knocks over the next domino. That is why having hard lines you don’t cross are important. Crossing a line which may seem harmless can cause a cascade of actions and reactions which become impossible to stop once they are set in motion.

World War I is an excellent example. The assassin of Archduke Franz Ferdinand could not possibly have understood that his actions would cause the…